油菜病毒病的流行程度与10月份降水量之间有着极显著的相关。本文应用灰色拓扑预测方法,选用上海、南京、杭州、武汉、合肥等站10月份的降水量资料,建立了一套灰色动态模型,对长江中下游地区至2000年该病流行趋势进行了超长期预测,并用1985-87年的资料对模型进行了验证,得到了理想的结果。

There is a remarkable correlation between the prevalent level of TpMV, TMV and the October precipitation. The October precipitation data of Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Hefei were used to establish a set of grey dynamic models with the grey topological theory, and a ultra long-term predicting for the prevalent trend of this disease in the middle and lower valley of Changjiang River was made. This is a satisfied result of model validation with the precipitation data of 1985-1987.